On March 30, 2020, I shared my post-coronavirus outlook for the real estate market in the Greater Toronto Area. At the time, the pandemic had just begun, and many families wondered what would happen to home sales and prices once the crisis passed.
This post was first published in March 2020. The views and programs below are from that month.
A post-coronavirus outlook from March 2020
I hoped and prayed that you were safe and spending good time with your families. Like many others, you probably had one obvious question on your mind. What would the real estate outlook be after we got over the coronavirus?
In uncertain times, no one can predict the future. Still, I wanted to share my thoughts and analysis of the market. My view assumed that the situation would come under control soon. In other words, I did not expect it to drag on to the end of the year or beyond.
I had heard many opinions. However, the view I held was close to a report RBC published on the post-coronavirus outlook of the real estate market. RBC called that report “A tough but temporary blow to Canada’s housing market” (RBC Economics, April 2020). It is no longer online.
A short-term adjustment in the Golden Horseshoe
I believed the real estate market in general, and the Golden Horseshoe area in particular, would see a short-term, slight adjustment. That adjustment would touch both the number of house sales and house prices.
So my post-coronavirus outlook was not one of collapse. Instead, I expected a brief pause, followed by a return to normal activity. For sellers, that meant patience rather than panic. For buyers, it meant a chance to plan carefully while others waited on the sidelines.
Of course, a short pause does not look the same in every neighbourhood. Detached homes, townhouses and condos each respond to their own mix of buyers. That is why local advice matters as much as the headlines.
Government support behind the post-coronavirus outlook
My main reason for optimism was simple. The Canadian federal government had provided generous support for small businesses and individuals. Here is what Ottawa announced at the time:
- 75% of employee salary support for small businesses.
- Up to a $40,000 interest-free loan to small businesses, of which $10,000 would be forgivable.
- EI payments without the mandatory waiting weeks before EI could kick in.
- Up to $2,000 for individuals whose jobs had been affected by COVID-19, and for those taking care of a family member.
- Most important of all, relief from mortgage payments for 6 months, which for most households is the biggest expense.
Besides, many cities allowed people to postpone property tax payments for 3 months. The Province of Ontario also offered other incentives. You can find current federal programs on the Government of Canada website.
If we add all of this up, my post-coronavirus outlook was hopeful. Because of this support from all levels of government, and especially the federal government, I expected people to carry on with their normal lives with fewer worries and a lighter financial burden once the pandemic ended.
Why Canada gave reason for optimism
God forbid, if the situation lasted longer, I was still optimistic. I trusted that the government would not leave us alone. Instead, I expected it to keep working to reduce the financial impact on businesses and individuals.
Keep in mind that the Canadian economy, together with stronger financial controls, has historically shown its sturdiness in stormy conditions. For example, we saw this during the near-collapse of the US real estate market in 2008 (read about the US housing bubble).
That history shaped my post-coronavirus outlook. Because of those stronger controls, I felt our market could absorb a short shock and then recover.
What the post-coronavirus outlook means for you today
A great deal has changed since March 2020. Prices, interest rates and buyer demand have all moved a lot. So please read this post as a record of what I thought at the time, not as advice for today’s market.
Still, the lessons from my post-coronavirus outlook hold up well. First, avoid decisions driven by fear. Second, look at the support and tools available to you before you act. Third, take a long view, because real estate usually rewards patience and planning.
For more on how I saw the market during those months, read where Toronto housing prices might go after COVID-19 and my note for anyone worried about the housing market. For a current view, see my fall 2026 buyers guide.
Think positively and stay safe
As I said before, no one can predict the future. But I believe that the future is what is in your mind, so think positively and achieve your dreams. That belief was the heart of my post-coronavirus outlook.
I prayed that you would all be safe, that we would see the end of this pandemic soon, and that we would get back to our normal lives. Meanwhile, I asked everyone to take care of themselves and to follow the safety precautions set by healthcare professionals. #BeSafeAndHelpOthersBeSafe
Talk to a Mississauga real estate agent
Do you have questions about buying, selling or simply planning your next move in Mississauga or the GTA? I am happy to help, so please send me a message or call me at 416 908 5600. Whether you want to buy or sell a home, or a commercial or farm property, I will be glad to meet and discuss your plans. A. Q. Mufti, Sales Representative, RE/MAX Real Estate Centre Inc., Brokerage
Disclaimer: this article was published on 18 January 2025 and reflects the information available at that time. Interest rates, prices, and government programs change, so check the current position before acting on anything here. It is provided for information only and is not financial, mortgage, tax or legal advice. A. Q. Mufti is a registered Sales Representative with RE/MAX Real Estate Centre Inc., Brokerage, Ontario, Canada.
