Which direction will Toronto housing prices go after COVID-19? It is the question I hear most this spring, from buyers, sellers and homeowners alike. Nobody can predict the future, but the numbers we have so far give us some useful clues.
This post was first published on May 17, 2020, early in the COVID-19 pandemic. The figures below are from April 2020.
What the April report says about Toronto housing prices
In my previous blog, I mentioned that home sales were down by 67%, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) report. At the same time, new listings were also down by almost the same ratio.
I shared many more interesting facts in that blog, and I tried to analyze which direction home prices could go. For example, the average sale price was up by 0.1% compared with April 2019. You can read the full post here: my TRREB market report for April 2020. So far, prices have held up better than many people feared.
Why fewer listings can support Toronto housing prices
Prices come from the balance between buyers and sellers. When sales drop but listings drop just as fast, that balance does not change much. In other words, fewer buyers are chasing fewer homes. That is why Toronto housing prices did not collapse when sales fell so sharply.
I explain this idea in more detail in my post on how supply and demand set market prices. The same rule applies to houses, condos and townhomes across the GTA.
What RE/MAX says about Toronto housing prices
RE/MAX’s latest blog tries to answer the same question. You can find it here:
It is worth reading alongside the official data. Also, you can follow the monthly numbers yourself on the TRREB website. Both sources help you look past the headlines and see how prices are actually moving.
What buyers should keep in mind
If you are a buyer, this period may feel confusing. On one hand, fewer people are out shopping, so you may face less competition. On the other hand, there are also fewer homes to choose from. So it pays to be ready. First, get your mortgage pre-approval in place. Next, decide what you truly need in a home. Then, when the right property appears, you can move with confidence. Watching Toronto housing prices month by month will also help you judge a fair offer.
It also helps to plan for a longer search than usual. Some sellers have taken their homes off the market for now, and they may list again later. Therefore, set up alerts for the areas you like, and ask your agent to watch for new listings every day. Be flexible on closing dates, too, since many sellers value a date that fits their own plans. Finally, keep your finances steady while you search. Avoid new loans or large purchases until your home deal has closed.
What sellers and homeowners should keep in mind
If you own a home, there is no need to panic. The trend before the pandemic was strong, and demand has not gone away. Instead, many buyers have simply pressed pause. Once life returns to normal, many of them are likely to come back.
If you plan to sell, think about timing and presentation. Virtual tours, good photos and careful safety steps for showings all matter now. Meanwhile, keep an eye on Toronto housing prices in your own neighbourhood, because local trends can differ from the GTA average. For more on how the pandemic changed the market, see my analysis of the mid-April 2020 sales figures.
The outlook for Toronto housing prices
Nobody knows exactly how long these conditions will last. Still, the balance between sales and listings gives us reason for calm. If buyers return as confidence builds, Toronto housing prices could resume the upward path we saw before the pandemic. Until then, the best plan is to stay informed and make decisions based on your own needs, not on fear. A home is a long-term decision, and a few difficult months rarely change the bigger picture for a family that plans to stay for years.
Talk to a Mississauga real estate agent
Do you have questions about what this means for you? I am happy to help. #BeSafeAndHelpOthersBeSafe. Please send me a message or call me on my direct line at 416 908 5600. A. Q. Mufti, Sales Representative, RE/MAX Real Estate Centre Inc., Brokerage.
Disclaimer: this article was published on 18 January 2025 and reflects the information available at that time. Interest rates, prices, and government programs change, so check the current position before acting on anything here. It is provided for information only and is not financial, mortgage, tax or legal advice. A. Q. Mufti is a registered Sales Representative with RE/MAX Real Estate Centre Inc., Brokerage, Ontario, Canada.
