On October 30, 2020, Canada announced a plan to welcome 1.2 million immigrants over the next three years. For home buyers and sellers in the GTA, it was one of the most important announcements of the year.
This post was first published on October 31, 2020. The plans and figures below are from that time.
Canada plans for 1.2 million immigrants
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the immigration process slowed, if not ground to a halt. Yet Canada cannot thrive without new immigrants. We need them to replace our population and to run our economy.
Canadian Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino announced on Friday, October 30, 2020, that Canada would welcome 1.2 million immigrants in the next three years. He also said the annual immigration target would reach over 400,000.
That is a big step up. So it is worth asking what it means for our cities, our jobs and, of course, our housing market.
A long history of immigration
Canada’s immigration history is as old as the country itself. According to Statistics Canada, “since Confederation in 1867, more than 17 million immigrants have come to Canada.” You can explore more data on the Statistics Canada website.
It may surprise many, but the year 1913 still holds the record for the most immigrants arriving in Canada in a single year. More than 400,000 immigrants arrived that year.
Since the early 1990s, the numbers have stayed steadily higher, and they continue to this day. About 235K new immigrants a year make Canada their new homeland. Adding more than a million immigrants over three years would build on that long tradition.
Where new immigrants settle
With the urgent need for new immigrants, and the government’s plan to take in almost half a million immigrants a year, we have to consider the impact on the country’s landscape, demographics and economy.
Historically, most new immigrants, almost 70%, settle in and around the GTA, Montreal, BC, Alberta and other major economic hubs. It is also interesting that many immigrants move to the GTA from other places over time. So if Canada welcomes a million immigrants or more, the GTA can expect to feel a large share of that growth.
These immigrants go through a rigorous vetting process. They bring a wealth of highly educated and trained people, along with their families and plenty of wealth. They also invest their lifetime savings in the economic engine of the country.
How a million immigrants affect housing demand
These immigrants need homes for themselves and their families. As a result, they create more demand for housing. That demand in turn supports thousands of direct and related jobs connected with the housing industry.
While this keeps the economic gears of the country turning, it also creates a demand and supply squeeze in housing. With a target of almost half a million new immigrants a year, we can expect a rapid increase in housing prices. Those prices have already seen double-digit increases despite the COVID-19 pandemic.
Newcomers often rent first, then buy once they settle into work. Therefore, both rental demand and first-time buyer demand tend to rise together. For current owners in Mississauga, that can support rents and home values. For buyers, however, it means more competition.
What it means for buyers who are waiting
So anyone who has been undecided for many years, still waiting for prices to touch bottom, may already have missed it without noticing. With 1.2 million immigrants expected over three years, waiting for a big drop may not be the safest plan.
Instead, focus on what you can control. Know your budget, get a mortgage pre-approval and learn the neighbourhoods that fit your life. Then you can act with confidence when the right home comes along.
Much has changed since 2020, and immigration targets have been revised since then. For the latest official plans, visit the Government of Canada website. You can also read why higher newcomer numbers matter for the housing market and what work-permit holders need to know about buying property.
Take care of yourselves and follow the safety precautions defined by healthcare professionals. Please pray for the safety of all and for a cure for COVID-19 to be found soon.
Talk to a Mississauga real estate agent
Do you have questions about buying, selling or simply planning your next move in Mississauga or the GTA? I am happy to help, so please send me a message or call me at 416 908 5600. I will be happy to discuss this with you one-on-one. A. Q. Mufti, Sales Representative, RE/MAX Real Estate Centre Inc., Brokerage
Disclaimer: this article was published on 18 January 2025 and reflects the information available at that time. Interest rates, prices, and government programs change, so check the current position before acting on anything here. It is provided for information only and is not financial, mortgage, tax or legal advice. A. Q. Mufti is a registered Sales Representative with RE/MAX Real Estate Centre Inc., Brokerage, Ontario, Canada.
