Canadian home sales slowed again in September, according to the latest statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). National home sales eased on a month-over-month basis in September 2023. Here is what the report shows and what it means for buyers and sellers.
This post was first published in the fall of 2023. The figures below are from CREA’s September 2023 report.
Key highlights: Canadian home sales in September
Here are the key highlights from the CREA report on Canadian home sales.
- Decline in sales: National home sales fell 1.9% month-over-month in September.
- Year-over-year activity: Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity was 1.9% higher than in September 2022.
- New listings surge: The number of newly listed properties jumped 6.3% month-over-month.
- Home Price Index (HPI): The MLS® Home Price Index edged down 0.3% month-over-month, but it was up 1.1% year-over-year.
- National average sale price: The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price rose 2.5% year-over-year in September.
You can find CREA’s national data on the CREA website.
A third month of slower Canadian home sales
September marked the third month in a row of declining home sales. Still, this drop was smaller than the one in August.
Local markets moved in different ways. Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) saw declines. By contrast, Edmonton, Montreal and the Kitchener-Waterloo region reported gains. So the national number hides a lot of local variety, and Canadian home sales depend a great deal on where you live.
Why buyers are waiting
The report points out that slower sales and more new listings give buyers an opportunity. However, many potential buyers are cautiously waiting for more proof that interest rates have peaked. Also, most sellers are not under immediate pressure to sell. Together, these two factors are likely to keep Canadian home sales on the slower side until next year.
The housing market settled down quickly after a brief rebound in sales and prices in the spring. Meanwhile, uncertain interest rates and the cost of borrowing will keep shaping how buyers feel.
New listings and inventory behind Canadian home sales
New listings have risen sharply, climbing about 35% from their 20-year low in March. As a result, the national sales-to-new listings ratio has eased and fallen below its long-term average. There are now 3.7 months of inventory at the national level.
In plain terms, buyers have more choice than they did in the spring. That usually means less pressure to rush and more room to negotiate. For more on why that can be healthy, see my post on why a balanced market is good for everyone.
Prices: is Ontario an outlier?
There was a small decline in prices at the national level in September. However, it came mainly from trends in Ontario. Prices are still rising across other provinces, although at a slower pace.
The coming months will show whether Ontario is an outlier or the start of a wider trend of softer prices, given current interest rates. The report also notes that year-over-year price comparisons are expected to rise. This is due to the base effect from falling prices in the second half of last year. So when you read about Canadian home sales and prices, check whether the figure compares with last month or last year.
What slower Canadian home sales mean for you
In summary, the Canadian housing market in September showed slowing sales and a more balanced supply of new listings. Interest rates and changing buyer sentiment continue to shape the market.
If you are buying in Mississauga or elsewhere in the GTA, a slower market can give you time to compare homes and make a careful offer. If you are selling, fair pricing and good presentation matter more than ever. To see how the GTA itself fared that month, read my review of the September 2023 TRREB report.
Talk to a Mississauga real estate agent
Do you have questions about what this means for you? I am happy to help. I can help you find a solution that suits your unique needs and goals. Please send me a message or call me on my direct line at 416 908 5600. A. Q. Mufti, Sales Representative, RE/MAX Real Estate Centre Inc., Brokerage.
Disclaimer: this article was published on 18 January 2025 and reflects the information available at that time. Interest rates, prices, and government programs change, so check the current position before acting on anything here. It is provided for information only and is not financial, mortgage, tax or legal advice. A. Q. Mufti is a registered Sales Representative with RE/MAX Real Estate Centre Inc., Brokerage, Ontario, Canada.
