GTA Transactions Up 7% Year-Over-Year — The Recovery Has Quietly Begun
Prices remain 4.9% below last year. New listings just dropped 9.3%. Buyers are flooding back while supply shrinks. The data is sending a clear message — and it won’t stay this way for long.
In real estate, the loudest signal is rarely the most important one. While the headlines focus on prices still being below last year, the April 2026 TRREB data is quietly telling a very different story: buyers are returning faster than sellers can list, and the seasonally adjusted price has now risen two consecutive months. We have seen this movie before — and we know how it ends.
Below is my full breakdown of the April 2026 TRREB Quick Market Overview — covering residential, commercial, condominium sales, and rental markets — with plain-language guidance for buyers, sellers, and investors.
📅 Published: May 5, 2026 · ✍️ A. Q. Mufti, Sales Representative · RE/MAX Real Estate Centre Inc. · 📍 Mississauga, GTA · ⏱ 9 min read
April 2026 Key Performance Indicators
Eight metrics that define where the GTA market stands — and where momentum is building.
The Numbers in Context
Six Market Signals Decoded
Demand Has Decisively Returned
A 7% year-over-year jump in transactions is not noise — it’s a trend. And the seasonally adjusted 6.1% month-over-month gain confirms it’s not just a spring blip. Buyers are back, and they’re competing for fewer listings.
Supply Is Quietly Disappearing
New listings fell 9.3% year-over-year. More buyers + fewer homes = upward price pressure. The sales-to-new-listings ratio is already up 6% year-over-year. This is the math that precedes price acceleration.
Price Recovery Has Started — Quietly
The seasonally adjusted average price rose 0.8% from March to April. This is the second consecutive monthly gain. While the headline YoY figure still shows −4.9%, the direction of travel has reversed. You’re buying at a discount that is actively shrinking.
Days on Market: Your Window Is Shrinking
Yes, properties are taking longer than last year to sell (+16.2% YoY). But with the S/A transactions surging 6.1% in one month, absorption is accelerating. The longer YoY DOM reflects the correction period — not the current trajectory.
Condos: The Deepest Discount in the Market
Condo sales dropped 15% QoQ and prices fell 5.1% QoQ. For investors and first-time buyers, this represents the most deeply discounted asset class in the GTA — in a market that is now clearly recovering. Buy low, benefit from the turn.
Commercial Activity Points to Economic Confidence
Leasing activity surged 12.4% and commercial retail space activity rose 18.3% quarter-over-quarter. When businesses expand, employees follow — and employees need housing. Commercial health is a leading indicator for residential demand.
Residential Market: Apr 2026 vs Prior Periods
| Metric | April 2026 | YoY Change | MoM Change (S/A) | Buyer Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Transactions | ↑ Above Apr 2025 | ↑ +7% YoY | ↑ +6.1% MoM | Demand is real & growing |
| Average Selling Price | Below Apr 2025 | ↓ −4.9% YoY | ↑ +0.8% MoM | Buy at discount — recovering |
| New Listings | Below Apr 2025 | ↓ −9.3% YoY | — | Supply shrinking fast |
| Sales-to-New Listings | Higher ratio | ↑ +6% YoY | — | Market tightening |
| Days on Market (Property) | Extended | ↑ +16.2% YoY | — | Still time — but closing |
| Days on Market (Listing) | Extended | ↑ +16% YoY | — | Negotiate — but act |
Where Is the Needle — April 2026?
S/A ratio up 6% YoY. Demand outpacing supply — shifting toward seller conditions.
Two consecutive months of rising SA transactions — the trend is confirmed, not coincidental.
Condos: Maximum Discount, Maximum Opportunity
The condominium sales market is showing the deepest discounts in the entire GTA real estate spectrum this quarter. For first-time buyers and investors, this is the highest-value entry point in years — in a market showing clear recovery signals.
🔑 Condo Rental Market — April 2026
💡 Investor insight: Rentals surging +16% while rents dip 4.5% = more renters entering the market. As supply is absorbed, rents will recover — and investors who buy condos at today’s −5.1% discounted prices stand to benefit from both capital appreciation and rental income growth.
Commercial Activity Points to Economic Expansion
Commercial real estate activity is a leading indicator for residential demand — businesses expanding means jobs growing, and jobs growing means housing demand rising. The April 2026 commercial signals are unambiguously positive.
5 Reasons April 2026 Is Still a Buying Window — But Not for Long
The data is shifting fast. Here’s the evidence that acting now beats waiting.
Prices Still 4.9% Below Last Year
Every month of recovery erodes this discount. You’re still buying below last year’s prices — for a market that has turned the corner. That gap is closing.
Two Consecutive Months of SA Price Gains
The seasonally adjusted price rose in both March and April 2026. Two consecutive monthly gains is the statistical confirmation that the price floor has been reached.
Listings Dropping Fast (−9.3%)
Supply is not catching up to demand. When listings fall while transactions rise, inventory tightens — and tighter inventory always precedes price acceleration in the GTA.
Commercial Activity Signals Job Growth
Leasing up 12.4%, retail up 18.3%, office up 18.6% — businesses are expanding in the GTA. Expanding businesses hire people. People need homes. The demand pipeline is filling.
Condo Opportunity Won’t Last
Condo prices down 5.1% QoQ while rentals surge 16% — the classic setup for an investor opportunity. Rental demand absorbed with below-replacement-cost supply = appreciation ahead.
Where April 2026 Fits in the Recovery Playbook
Phase 1 — Peak (2021–2022)
Historic highs. Bidding wars on every listing. FOMO-driven demand. Rate hikes begin. Smart money quietly starts to exit.
Phase 2 — Rate Shock & Correction (2022–2024)
Rapid rate increases cool the market. Prices fall 15–20% from peak. Volume drops. Days on market extend dramatically. Fear is at maximum — and opportunity begins forming quietly.
Phase 3 — Base Building (Late 2025 – Early 2026)
Prices stabilize. Volume begins recovering. Transaction counts start rising YoY. SA price makes first monthly gains. Smart buyers enter. March 2026 data confirmed this phase.
Phase 4 — Early Recovery (April 2026 — RIGHT NOW)
This is where we are. Transactions up 7% YoY. SA prices up two consecutive months. Listings falling 9.3%. The accumulation phase is active. History shows this is where the best risk-adjusted entry points exist.
Phase 5 — Full Recovery & New Appreciation (2026–2028, Projected)
Rates stabilize lower. Pent-up demand releases. Bidding wars return in hot segments. YoY price growth accelerates. Buyers who entered in Phase 4 see strong paper gains. New entrants pay premium prices.
“The best time to buy GTA real estate was always before the recovery became obvious to everyone else. April 2026 data says we are exactly at that point.”— A. Q. Mufti, Sales Representative · RE/MAX Real Estate Centre Inc. · 416 908 5600
What April 2026 Means if You’re Selling
The news is improving. Transactions are up 7% year-over-year and the SA price is recovering. But new listings are also down 9.3% — meaning smart sellers who time this well will face less competition than they might expect.
Price to the Recovery, Not the Peak
Benchmark your listing against the current SA price trajectory (+0.8% MoM), not 2022 peaks. Sellers who price 3–5% above current market will sit while correctly priced homes sell in under 40 days.
Spring Supply Is Your Competition
New listings historically peak in May–June. List now before the supply surge and benefit from the current 9.3% supply deficit. May is your strategic window — don’t wait for summer.
Commercial Confidence Helps You
The +18.3% retail and +18.6% office leasing activity signals a strengthening economy and growing employment base. That workforce needs housing — and your listing is part of the solution.
Questions Clients Are Asking About April 2026
Is April 2026 a good time to buy a home in the GTA?
Yes — the data supports it strongly. Average prices are still 4.9% below last year, giving buyers a meaningful discount. Meanwhile, transactions are up 7% YoY and the seasonally adjusted price has now risen for two consecutive months. This combination of below-peak pricing and confirmed demand recovery is a classic entry signal.
Will GTA home prices go up in 2026?
The indicators point in that direction. The seasonally adjusted average price rose 0.8% from March to April — the second consecutive monthly gain. New listings are falling (−9.3% YoY) while transactions surge (+7% YoY). When supply shrinks and demand rises simultaneously, price recovery is the typical outcome based on 30 years of GTA market history.
Should I buy a condo in the GTA in 2026?
Condos represent the deepest discount in the current GTA market — prices down 5.1% quarter-over-quarter with sales down 15%. For investors, condo rentals surged 16% QoQ while average rents dipped 4.5% — meaning more tenants are entering the market at temporarily lower rents. As rental supply is absorbed, rents will recover, and investors who bought at today’s prices will benefit from both rental income and capital appreciation.
How long does it typically take to sell a home in the GTA right now?
In April 2026, average property days on market are up 16.2% year-over-year, suggesting a more measured pace than the frenzied market of prior years. However, with the sales-to-new-listings ratio already 6% higher YoY and transactions accelerating, this extended DOM window is expected to compress through spring and summer 2026 as recovery momentum builds.
What is the best neighbourhood to buy in Mississauga in 2026?
Mississauga remains one of the GTA’s most resilient markets given its commercial activity base, transit investment, and population growth. Neighbourhoods near major employment hubs and transit corridors tend to recover earliest in any cycle. Contact A. Q. Mufti directly at 416 908 5600 for a free, neighbourhood-specific analysis tailored to your budget and goals.
Ready to Buy or Sell in the GTA?
Don’t navigate this market alone. Book a free, no-obligation strategy session with A. Q. Mufti and get personalized guidance based on your situation, your budget, and your neighbourhood.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ RE/MAX Real Estate Centre Inc. · 141-1140 Burnhamthorpe Rd. W., Mississauga · info@aqmuftirealty.com
📌 Disclaimer: This market analysis is based on the TRREB Quick Market Overview for April 2026 and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or legal advice. Past market performance does not guarantee future results. A. Q. Mufti is a registered Sales Representative at RE/MAX Real Estate Centre Inc., Brokerage, in Ontario, Canada.
